2026 El Niño is coming. What does that mean?

We’re halfway through 2026. We’ve experienced conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. An escalation of violence in Sudan. And the kickoff to the biggest World Cup in history, too.

Now, scientists are saying El Niño may make an appearance in 2026.

El Niño is one of those things you hear about, remember it existed and then eventually forget. Until you hear about it again several years later.

A quick World Vision Canada refresher on what is El Niño:

• El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean.
• It arrives every two to seven years and stays for about 12 months.
• El Niño influences weather worldwide, from rainfall and temperatures to droughts and floods.
• It is a natural climate pattern and not a direct byproduct of climate change, but climate change can amplify some of its effects.
• El Niño is Spanish for “the Christ Child”, a name given by Peruvian fisherman in the 1600s who noted the warmer waters around Christmastime.

Scientists expect El Niño to develop and strengthen in 2026. This version, though, could become a “Super El Niño 2026”, meaning it will be more powerful and impactful than the last El Niño of 2023—2024.

Let’s take a closer look at what all this means.

What is the 2026 Super El Niño, exactly?

As mentioned earlier, El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean increase. If they rise by as little as two degrees Celsius above the long-term average, that may cause a Super El Niño season.

If it’s a Super El Niño, it would only be the third recognized such occurrence since 1980.

The difference between El Niño and Super El Niño isn’t in weather patterns, but in strength and impact. Think of it like turning up the heat on your stove:

• El Niño is medium heat.
• Super El Niño is high heat.

They’re the same. But one is more powerful—and more impactful—than the other.

Flashback: the most famous Super El Niño

The Super El Niño in 1997—1998 is one of the most powerful El Niño events ever. Sea surface temperatures reached exceptionally high levels. Weather patterns were disrupted and the results were devastating:

• Severe flooding in Peru, Ecuador and California caused by extreme rainfall.
• Punishing droughts and wildfires in Indonesia and across Southeast Asia.
• Lost crops and damaged agricultural land in Australia, North America and southern Africa.

All told, over 20,000 deaths and $36 billion (USD) in infrastructure damage were attributed to Super El Niño in 1997-1998. Some studies also say that $5 trillion in global income was lost, too.

That was nearly 30 years ago.

What will the 2026 El Niño bring? Or could it become a Super El Niño?

We don't know. But we can be ready for it.

Where is 2026 El Niño happening?

Pull up a map of the Pacific Ocean:

• Put your finger on the west coast of South America, along Peru and Ecuador.
• Trace your finger along the equator westward towards the International Date Line.
• When you reach the International Date Line, stop.

El Niño occurs in a region spanning approximately 16 million square kilometres of the central Pacific Ocean. But its impact in 2026 will be felt worldwide and in diverse ways.

Location: Southeast Asia Impact: hotter temperatures, less rain

Countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines could experience hotter, drier weather during El Niño. This potentially means:

• Water shortages as wells and reservoirs are not replenished.
• Increased wildfire risk in vulnerable, ecologically fragile areas.
• Lower yields for crops like rice, coffee and palm oil.

This isn’t just a meteorological issue. It’s also an economic one. For families living on daily wages, rising food prices can quickly become unaffordable.

Location: Australia Impact: drought, heatwaves and bushfires

Australia is especially vulnerable to El Niño because it often brings lower rainfall, higher temperatures and drought conditions.

As conditions become drier, the threat of bushfires rises in the eastern and southern parts of the country. The increased heat can also bleach out coral on the Great Barrier Reef. This is in addition to the impact climate change is already having on Australia, such as:

• Stress on health and social support networks.
• Risks to infrastructure such as roads and highways.
• Rising sea levels for those living in coastal communities.

These conditions can place additional strain on farming communities, water supplies and emergency services.

Location: India Impact: weaker monsoon season

The summer monsoon provides nearly 70 per cent of India’s annual rainfall and is vital for the country’s agriculture. The 2026 El Niño can result in weaker rains, which, in turn, can reduce crop yields and strain water supplies for things like:

• Rice
• Cotton
• Soybeans

That kickstarts a chain reaction of less rain to lower crop production to tighter food supplies to increased food prices.

A family spending approximately ₹8,000 ($120 CAD) per month on groceries can see those prices increase to ₹9,500 ($142 CAD) due to El Niño. Even the smallest increases can have a significant impact on low-income households.

Location: Southern Africa Impact: drought

El Niño can severely decrease rainfall across countries that depend on seasonal rains to grow crops and raise livestock. Impacted countries include:

• Botswana
• Namibia
• Mozambique
• South Africa

The crop most at risk is maize (corn), which is a staple among many communities. Other vulnerable crops include millet, beans, peanuts and soybeans. The last time El Niño impacted southern Africa, it resulted in the worst mid-season dry spell in over 100 years and the lowest mid-season rainfall in 40.

For farming families, a failed rainy season can mean reduced meals, lost income or having to rely on food assistance.

Location: Peru and Ecuador Impact: heavy rain and flooding

Some coastal areas of Peru may experience heavier-than-normal rainfall. In some areas, that’s up to 10 times the normal amount. That brings:

• Flooding of infrastructure such as drainage, sanitation, roads and even underground subway systems.
• Oversaturation of hills and valleys causing landslides that damage roads, bridges, homes and farmland.
• Flash floods that can wash away crops such as mangoes, avocadoes and blueberries.

The 2026 El Niño season can also cause a public health crisis. Standing water creates ideal breeding conditions for mosquitoes, which increases the risk for diseases like dengue fever.

Location: southern United States and California Impact: More storms and heavier rainfall

El Niño often brings wetter conditions to parts of the southern United States and California. While the increased precipitation is a welcome respite from drought conditions in some areas, it can also increase the risk of things like:

• Flooding
• Landslides
• Severe storm events

To illustrate the potential impact of El Niño in 2026, take a look the Point Reyes National Seashore park. It has approximately 240 kilometres of trails and the Super El Niño of 1997-1998 forced the closure of 95 per cent of its trail network.

Location: Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Impact: Fewer hurricanes

This is one of the few positive effects of El Niño as it makes it harder for tropical storms—which can ultimately grow into hurricanes—to develop.

Now, this doesn’t mean strong hurricanes can’t develop. They absolutely can. This only means that the 2026 hurricane season should be less active than normal.

Location: Worldwide Impact: Higher temperatures

El Niño releases heat stored in the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere, thus increasing global temperatures.

Regions already prone to extreme heat may experience more frequent or intense heat waves. Additionally, the hotter it gets, the faster water evaporates. That means less water for people to access and more stress on already strained water and irrigation systems.

The human connection

Remember that stretch of ocean you traced with your finger?

That patch of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean may seem distant and disconnected from our daily lives.

But for millions of people around the world, El Niño is much more than a weather pattern:

• It’s a farmer wondering if he’ll have enough to grow and sell at the local market.
• It’s a young family trying to manage rising food prices while living in poverty.
• It’s someone making an escape plan in case a flash flood or landslide hits.
• It’s a young girl having to walk even further to fetch water for her family when she should be in school.

We cannot stop El Niño from happening. But we can help communities prepare for it. Here’s how:

Give agricultural packs

• When El Niño brings drought or unpredictable rainfall, agricultural packs can help families continue growing food and earning income.

Donate safe water

• As El Niño increases the risk of drought and water shortages, access to reliable clean water can help protect families from some of its worst effects.

Give farm animals and seeds

• When harvests are poor, livestock can provide an alternative source of nutrition and income for families.

Give to where it’s most needed

• Ensure families and communities facing the greatest impacts of El Niño are receiving the greatest support.